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Inflation remains key challenge in emerging Asia

2011-3-24

While monetary tightening may be effective against inflation when it resulted from the excess domestic demand, it will accomplish little against imported inflation, which is now felt by most of the economies, particularly the emerging ones. The only places where monetary policy can affect global commodity inflation are in the United States and Europe, which is clearly not very possible in the near term given the weak demand in these regions.

"In short, the world seems condemned to live with higher inflation in coming years," Alfredo Coutino, director of Moody's Analytics, said in a report earlier this month.

"The main risk to global growth is that policymakers will fail to recognize the difference and that rising commodity prices will lead to a wave of monetary tightening," he added.

Policymakers would have to calibrate the optimal policy to guide the economy through a soft landing, he said.

The recent earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan and the tension in Middle East could also add to upward pressure on the world commodity prices, and dampen world economic growth, Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said earlier this week.

The good news is that after the bumps ahead there will a brighter outlook ahead.

Moody's Investors Service, another branch of the Moody's group, said the inflation pressure for the Asian companies are still manageable, though the downside risks include a further rise in international oil prices.

Source:English.news.cn
 
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